JAXA Repository / AIREX 未来へ続く、宙(そら)への英知
63729000.pdf1.57 MB
Other TitleStochastic system evaluation by Monte Carlo approach
Author(jpn)元田 敏和
Author(eng)Motoda, Toshikazu
Author Affiliation(jpn)宇宙航空研究開発機構 総合技術研究本部 飛行システム技術開発センター
Author Affiliation(eng)Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Flight Systems Technology Center, Institute of Aerospace Technology
Issue Date2007-12-28
PublisherJapan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)
Publication date2007-12-28
AbstractIn the development of aerospace vehicles, pre-flight evaluation is essential because it is often uneasy to conduct flight test in a real environment. In spite of a lot of uncertain parameters in the real world, a developed aerospace vehicle is required to achieve its mission at the first flight. Monte Carlo simulation is a powerful tool for pre-flight evaluation, because those uncertain parameters can be incorporated and the non-linear system is evaluated directly. As computer power has increased, Monte Carlo simulation has become recognized as an effective and practical tool and has been used in aerospace projects all over the world. Since Monte Carlo approach statistically estimates a true value by using a sample test, stochastic concepts, such as confidence interval and a number of simulations, is necessary. This paper discusses Monte Carlo evaluation and those stochastic concepts. Finally, a practical example is shown to encourage the use of Monte Carlo approach.
DescriptionJAXA Research and Development Report
KeywordsMonte Carlo method; stochastic process; statistical analysis; flight simulation; nonlinear system; uncertain system; system evaluation; binomial distribution; confidence interval; normal distribution; モンテカルロ法; 確率過程; 統計解析; 飛行シミュレーション; 非線形システム; 不確定性システム; システム評価; 2項分布; 信頼区間; 正規分布
Document TypeTechnical Report
JAXA Category研究開発報告
Report NoJAXA-RR-07-005

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