| タイトル | Polar Processes in a 50-year Simulation of Stratospheric Chemistry and Transport |
| 著者（英） | Patrick, L. C.; Douglass, A. R.; Randall, C. E.; Allen, D. R.; Kawa, S.R. |
| 著者所属（英） | NASA Goddard Space Flight Center |
| 発行日 | 2004-01-01
2004 |
| 言語 | eng |
| 内容記述 | The unique chemical, dynamical, and microphysical processes that occur in the winter polar lower stratosphere are expected to interact strongly with changing climate and trace gas abundances. Significant changes in ozone have been observed and prediction of future ozone and climate interactions depends on modeling these processes successfully. We have conducted an off-line model simulation of the stratosphere for trace gas conditions representative of 1975-2025 using meteorology from the NASA finite-volume general circulation model. The objective of this simulation is to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone and chemical change to varying meteorology and trace gas inputs. This presentation will examine the dependence of ozone and related processes in polar regions on the climatological and trace gas changes in the model. The model past performance is base-lined against available observations, and a future ozone recovery scenario is forecast. Overall the model ozone simulation is quite realistic, but initial analysis of the detailed evolution of some observable processes suggests systematic shortcomings in our description of the polar chemical rates and/or mechanisms. Model sensitivities, strengths, and weaknesses will be discussed with implications for uncertainty and confidence in coupled climate chemistry predictions. |
| NASA分類 | Meteorology and Climatology |
| 権利 | No Copyright |
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