| タイトル | Predictability of Seasonal Means in the NSIPP-1 AGCM |
| 著者（英） | Suarez, Max; Schubert, Siegfried; Einaudi, Franco; Pegion, Phillip |
| 著者所属（英） | NASA Goddard Space Flight Center |
| 発行日 | 2000-01-01 |
| 言語 | eng |
| 内容記述 | The predictability of seasonal means during 1980-99 is examined from 720 seasonal integrations with version 1 of NASA's Seasonal to Interanual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The AGCM is the atmospheric (and land) component of the NSIPP fully-coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. For these runs, the initial atmospheric conditions are taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses, and sea surface temperatures and sea ice are specified from observations. Results from the northern winter integrations show that the model has a very realistic El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response in both the tropics and extratropics. Early results from the northern summer runs show a robust extratropical ENSO response in the Southern Hemisphere Pacific, as well as, a pronounced zonally-symmetric component to the ENSO response in both hemispheres. Results will be presented at the meeting highlighting the seasonal evolution in predictability and skill of the NSIPP model on both global and regional scales. A further analysis of the zonally-symmetric response will be discussed in terms of its potential impact on the predictability of middle-latitude climate variability on seasonal to interannual time scales. |
| NASA分類 | Environment Pollution |
| 権利 | No Copyright |
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