| タイトル | Approaches to Evaluating Probability of Collision Uncertainty |
| 本文（外部サイト） | http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160001643 |
| 著者（英） | Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C. |
| 著者所属（英） | NASA Goddard Space Flight Center |
| 発行日 | 2016-02-14 |
| 言語 | eng |
| 内容記述 | While the two-dimensional probability of collision (Pc) calculation has served as the main input to conjunction analysis risk assessment for over a decade, it has done this mostly as a point estimate, with relatively little effort made to produce confidence intervals on the Pc value based on the uncertainties in the inputs. The present effort seeks to try to carry these uncertainties through the calculation in order to generate a probability density of Pc results rather than a single average value. Methods for assessing uncertainty in the primary and secondary objects' physical sizes and state estimate covariances, as well as a resampling approach to reveal the natural variability in the calculation, are presented; and an initial proposal for operationally-useful display and interpretation of these data for a particular conjunction is given. |
| NASA分類 | Statistics and Probability |
| レポートNO | AAS 16-241
GSFC-E-DAA-TN29125 |
| 権利 | Copyright, Distribution under U.S. Government purpose rights |
