JAXA Repository / AIREX 未来へ続く、宙(そら)への英知

There are no files associated with this item.

titleSimilar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods
Author(eng)Wallach, Daniel; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Martre, Pierre; Ewart, Frank; Muller, Christoph; Jones, James W.; Deryng, Delphine; Lobell, David B.; Elliott, Joshua; Ruane, Alex C.
Author Affiliation(eng)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Issue Date2016-09-12
DescriptionThe potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
NASA Subject CategoryEarth Resources and Remote Sensing; Computer Programming and Software
Report NoGSFC-E-DAA-TN35739

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.