| タイトル | Risk-Hedged Approach for Re-Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty |
| 本文（外部サイト） | http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170000831 |
| 著者（英） | Bilimoria, Karl D.; Sadovsky, Alexander V. |
| 著者所属（英） | NASA Ames Research Center |
| 発行日 | 2016-06-13 |
| 言語 | eng |
| 内容記述 | This presentation corresponds to: our paper explores a new risk-hedged approach for re-routing air traffic around forecast convective weather. In this work, flying through a more likely weather instantiation is considered to pose a higher level of risk. Current operational practice strategically plans re-routes to avoid only the most likely (highest risk) weather instantiation, and then tactically makes any necessary adjustments as the weather evolves. The risk-hedged approach strategically plans re-routes by minimizing the risk-adjusted path length, incorporating multiple possible weather instantiations with associated likelihoods (risks). The resulting model is transparent and is readily analyzed for realism and treated with well-understood shortest-path algorithms. Risk-hedged re-routes are computed for some example weather instantiations. The main result is that in some scenarios, relative to an operational-practice proxy solution, the risk-hedged solution provides the benefits of lower risk as well as shorter path length. In other scenarios, the benefits of the risk-hedged solution are ambiguous, because the solution is characterized by a tradeoff between risk and path length. The risk-hedged solution can be executed in those scenarios where it provides a clear benefit over current operational practice. |
| NASA分類 | Systems Analysis and Operations Research; Air Transportation and Safety |
| レポートNO | ARC-E-DAA-TN32409 |
| 権利 | No Copyright |
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