| タイトル | On the Impact Angle of Hurricane Sandy's New Jersey Landfall |
| 本文（外部サイト） | http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140016839 |
| 著者（英） | Sobel, Adam H.; Hall, Timothy M. |
| 著者所属（英） | NASA Goddard Space Flight Center |
| 発行日 | 2013-05-29 |
| 言語 | eng |
| 内容記述 | Hurricane Sandy's track crossed the New Jersey coastline at an angle closer to perpendicular than any previous hurricane in the historic record, one of the factors contributing to recordsetting peak-water levels in parts of New Jersey and New York. To estimate the occurrence rate of Sandy-like tracks, we use a stochastic model built on historical hurricane data from the entire North Atlantic to generate a large sample of synthetic hurricanes. From this synthetic set we calculate that under long-term average climate conditions, a hurricane of Sandy's intensity or greater (category 1+) makes NJ landfall at an angle at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy's at an average annual rate of 0.0014 yr-1 (95% confidence range 0.0007 to 0.0023); i.e., a return period of 714 years (95% confidence range 435 to 1429). |
| NASA分類 | Meteorology and Climatology |
| レポートNO | GSFC-E-DAA-TN8654 |
| 権利 | Copyright, Distribution as joint owner in the copyright |
