| タイトル | On the Relationship Between Global Land-Ocean Temperature and Various Descriptors of Solar-Geomagnetic Activity and Climate |
| 本文（外部サイト） | http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140006389 |
| 著者（英） | Wilson, Robert M. |
| 発行日 | 2014-04-01 |
| 言語 | eng |
| 内容記述 | Examined are sunspot cycle- (SC-) length averages of the annual January-December values of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (<GLOTI>) in relation to SC-length averages of annual values of various descriptors of solar-geomagnetic activity and climate, incorporating lags of 0-5 yr. For the overall interval SC12-SC23, the <GLOTI> is inferred to correlate best against the parameter <aa(I:SSN)> incorporating lag = 5 yr, where the parameter <aa(I:SSN)> refers to the resultant aa value having removed that portion of the annual aa average value due to the yearly variation of sunspot number (SSN). The inferred correlation between the <GLOTI> and <aa(I:SSN)> is statistically important at confidence level cl > 99.9%, having a coefficient of linear correlation r = 0.865 and standard error of estimate se = 0.149 degC. Excluding the most recent cycles SC22 and SC23, the inferred correlation is stronger, having r = 0.969 and se = 0.048 degC. With respect to the overall trend in the <GLOTI>, which has been upwards towards warmer temperatures since SC12 (1878-1888), solar-geomagnetic activity parameters are now trending downwards (since SC19). For SC20-SC23, in contrast, comparison of the <GLOTI> against SC-length averages of the annual value of the Mauna Loa carbon dioxide (<MLCO2>) index is found to be highly statistically important (cl >> 99.9%), having r = 0.9994 and se = 0.012 degC for lag = 2 yr. On the basis of the inferred preferential linear correlation between the <GLOTI> and <MLCO2>, the current ongoing SC24 is inferred to have <GLOTI> warmer than was seen in SC23 (i.e., >0.526 degC), probably in excess of 0.68 degC (relative to the 1951-1980 base period). |
| NASA分類 | Solar Physics; Meteorology and Climatology |
| レポートNO | M-1382
NASA/TP-2014-218193 |
| 権利 | No Copyright |
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